Modeling the impact of population screening on breast cancer mortality in the United States
Mandelblatt et al, Breast . 2011 October ; 20(Suppl 3): S75–S81
This article describes the use of six simulation models to evaluate breast cancer screening outcomes varying initiation and cessation ages, and applying annual and biannual screening. The authors calculated mortality reduction, false-positives, unnecessary biopsies, and over-diagnosis. They found that the lifetime risk of breast cancer death beginning at the age of 40 is 3% and that screening reduces that risk. They conclude that decisions about screening strategy, with regard to age and frequency, depends upon preference for benefits compared with potential harms, as well as available resources.